Colloquium

Scheduled Talk - November 16, 2009 - [ 3:00PM in DH 1064 ]

Andrew Schaefer
Department of Industrial Engineering
University of Pittsburgh

"Optimal Flu Shot Design Under Uncertainty"

Abstract:
Influenza (flu) is a highly contagious, acute, respiratory viral disease. Seasonal epidemics annually impact 5-15% of the world's population, resulting in 3-5 million cases of severe illness and up to 500,000 deaths. Seasonal flu epidemics caused by antigenic drifts and the high rate of influenza transmission require annual updates in the flu shot composition. The World Health Organization recommends which strains of influenza to include in each year’s vaccine based on surveillance data and epidemiological analysis.

There are two critical decisions regarding the flu shot. The first is its composition; currently three strains comprise the flu shot, and this decision affects its effectiveness against the upcoming flu epidemic. The second decision is the timing of the composition decision. If the strains are selected too early, there is a greater chance that there will be a mismatch. However, delaying the decision may leave insufficient time for manufacturing, resulting in delays or shortages in the flu shot supply. We formulate a multi-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to address the optimal timing and design of the annual flu shot, and present computational results calibrated on a decade of flu data.